Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Wood and wood products import forecast and trend analysis during 1989 – 2016 in India

Author(s):

 V. K. Upadhyay ¹, Rajiv Pandey ², Pradeep K. Kushwaha ¹,  Narasimha Murthy ¹

Recieved Date: 2019-01-21, Accepted Date: 2019-03-30

Abstract:

This article is focused on trend analysis of import of wood and wood products in India based on twenty-five years of import statistics. The database of wood and wood products as fuel-wood (HS-Code-4401), charcoal of wood (HS-Code-4402), wood in logs (HS-Code-4403), sawn wood (HSCode-4407), wood based panels (HS-Code-4408, 4410, 4411 & 4412) and other articles of wood (including chapter 44, remaining other HS-Code) was considered to forecast the import for the year 2016-2017 to 2021-2022 based on the import statistics of the years 1988-1989 to 2015-2016. The total import of wood and wood products was 97.1 million CUM from different countries, consisting of 83% of wood logs; 9% of wood based panels, 4% of sawn wood, 2% of fuel wood, 1% of charcoal of wood and 1% of other articles of wood during the year. Import of wood and wood products Malaysia (27.8%), Myanmar (19.8%) and New Zealand (7.2%) were major exported of the wood and wood products. The ARIMA model analysis resulted that India would be importing 11 million CUM of wood and wood products worth Rs 21, 63, 88 million in the year 2019-2020 and expected to increase to 12.23 million CUM worth Rs 25, 41, 62 by the year 2021-2022.

Keywords:

ARIMA model, model statistics, residual analysis, wood products, wood trade

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2019
Volume: 17
Issue: 2
Category: Environment
Pages: 42-52

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