Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

System dynamics modeling for the pressure index of cultivated land in China 

Author(s):

Jin Tao, Meichen Fu *, Dingxuan Zhang, Jianjun Zhang, Xinqi Zheng

Recieved Date: 2013-02-09, Accepted Date: 2013-04-18

Abstract:

This paper defined the pressure index of cultivated land, and established a system dynamics model for simulation. Set a case study of China, the paper designed the objective and scenarios at first, then analyzed the dynamic characteristics of the pressure index under different conditions. The results show that in current development trends, the contradiction of China’s grain supply and demand would be gradually intensified. In order to reduce the pressure, the most effective measure is to increase the cultivated land area. Considering the current situation of China, the study presented two optional decisions to make the pressure index to reach a safe state: First one, China should add additional 1.2 million hectares of cultivated land every year from 2009 to 2030, while this decision would require too much investment of funds and land resources; the other measure is to increase 0.8 million hectares of cultivated land every year, as well as to improve the input to the cultivated land and to reduce the birth rate of the population. China should urgently adopt a rational measure to achieve the desired objective. 

Keywords:

System dynamics model, pressure index, grain security, cultivated land, China

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2013
Volume: 11
Issue: 2
Category: Environment
Pages: 1045-1049

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