Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Equilibrium analyses on structural changes of land uses in Jiangxi Province

Author(s):

Xiangzheng Deng ^1,2*, Fang Yin ^1,3, Yingzhi Lin ¹, Qin Jin ⁴, Ruijie Qu ⁵

Recieved Date: 2011-11-18, Accepted Date: 2012-01-03

Abstract:

Structural changes of land use are one of the hottest research fields among the regional environmental changes. Even so, there are few empirical studies touching the structural changes of land use by considering both the geophysical and socioeconomic influencing factors. This study is to build a computable general equilibrium of land-use changes (CGELUC) model to simulate the structural changes of land use in Jiangxi Province during 2010-2020 under four designed scenarios based on a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The simulation results show that the areas of cultivated land, water area, and unused land will decline, while forest cover, grassland, and built-up area of Jiangxi Province will expand between 2010 and 2020 under the baseline scenario. Comparatively, the subsidy for returning cultivated land inhibits the expansion of grassland of Jiangxi Province. The agricultural subsidy policy plays a positive role in conserving cultivated land and expanding the grassland cover at the cost of shrinking the forest cover, water area, and unused land. Additionally, the policies of subsidy for production of biofuel crops and timber positively promote the forest conservation and the shrinkage of water area and unused land. The scenario-based analysis results indicate that the performance of the policies affecting changes of land- use structures may vary over time. 

Keywords:

Land use, land use change, equilibrium analysis, CGELUC model, Jiangxi

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2012
Volume: 10
Issue: 1
Category: Environment
Pages: 846-852

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