Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

An improved system dynamics model for forecasting China’s animal product demand

Author(s):

Yanhua Li, Fang Liu, Bingjun Li^*

Recieved Date: 2011-11-08, Accepted Date: 2012-01-02

Abstract:

Based on the system dynamics (SD) approach, a novel forecasting model of China’s animal product demand, named SD-APD, is developed in this paper. SD-APD provides an efficient way to take the key components of China’s animal product demand and other influential factors, such as urbanization rate, residents’ consumption habits, per capita income and scientific-technical progress as a holistic system, and presents a more objective and accurate forecasting model for China’s animal product demand. Furthermore, to improve prediction quality in traditional system dynamics model, support vector machine (SVM) technique is also applied in AD-APD, which reduces the complexity of SD model and provides good generalization accuracy. The prediction results indicate that a rapid and dynamic increase in demand of animal products will be continued in China for the next ten years and the gap of per capita animal product demand between urban and rural residents still exists, but becomes much smaller. By the year 2020, the total demand of animal products in China will be increased steadily, from 70,480.0 million kg (Mkg) in 2011 to 1,204,142.2 Mkg in 2020. Moreover, though the total dairy product demand of Chinese residents has been increased largely, from 16,089.2 Mkg in 2011 to 42,978.0 Mkg in 2020, the pork demand still dominates in China’s animal products, which occupies 25.6% of total animal product demand averagely.

Keywords:

System dynamics, support vector machine, animal product demand, forecasting model

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2012
Volume: 10
Issue: 1
Category: Food and Health
Pages: 123-127

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