Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment

Testing multiregression model in predicting Phytophtora infestans L. attack degree on potato culture developed in climatic conditions from Transylvania, Romania

Author(s):

Ioan Gheorge Oroian, Antonia Odagiu *, Ilie Covrig, Laura Paulette, Teodor Rusu

Recieved Date: 2012-06-27, Accepted Date: 2013-01-10

Abstract:

Because global warming accompanied by alteration of precipitation regime became a real threat, worldwide, and potato is one of the most important cultures, increased interest was focused on the influence of the interaction of the climatic factors on potato most aggressive pathogen Phytophtora infestans (Mont) de Bary, which produces the disease called late blight. Based on this reality, our study was aimed to test at low scale the possibility of estimating the effect of Phytophtora infestans L. attack degree (AD) on a potato culture developed in Transylvania, Romania, under conditions of climate change, using the multiregression model. The specific objectives of the study were to annually evaluate the interdependence between temperature, precipitation quantities and Phytophtora infestans AD%, during three experimental years, 2009, 2010 and 2011, between 1st of April and 30th of September each year, to simulate the impact of the possible climatic scenarios on Phytophtora infestans AD% evolutions, and to evaluate the opportunity of using the multiregression model in predicting Phytophtora infestans AD% on potato cultures function of climatic factors, under conditions of conventional treatments. The use of the multiregression model explained 85% of the variation of the Phytophtora infestans attack degree in response to climatic conditions in studied area. The independent variables are in different relationships with Phytophtora infestans AD%, precipitation presents a lower relationship than the temperature. The same interaction was found when climatic change scenarios were developed. When temperature increases or decreases with 2oC and precipitation increases or decreases by 50%, precipitation quantities explain less on Phytophtora infestans AD%, compared with temperature. The study demonstrates the possibility of using the multiregression model in order to predict Phytophtora infestans attack degree on potato under specific climatic conditions. 

Keywords:

Prediction, scenario, dependent and independent variables, temperature, precipitation

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Journal: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment
Year: 2013
Volume: 11
Issue: 1
Category: Agriculture
Pages: 449-453

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